Caught between the State Legislature’s flood of housing laws and the demands of the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), cities everywhere in California are headed for failure. No matter how earnestly they try, cities cannot solve the “housing crisis” as defined by HCD. Nor can they protect the character of their neighborhoods or respond knowledgeably to local conditions, such as the relative danger of fire, earthquake or drought.
Here are five reasons why cities are failing:
Cities cannot control the multiple factors leading to the disparity between housing costs and wages. The “crisis” in housing exists primarily for residents at very-low, low- and moderate-income levels. For the past 50 years, the cost of housing has risen steadily while wages have remained flat.
Many cities don’t need more market-rate housing, yet the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) system, in effect for 52 years, supports a large number of market-rate units as the driver of a very small number of “affordable units.” The system has failed to produce enough housing for residents at the bottom of the economic ladder. For the sixth cycle, RHNA numbers increased by quantum leaps. A state audit found the numbers, the methods and the math faulty. New Department of Finance projections show California’s population will remain relatively flat through 2060. New population projections make the RHNA numbers even less trustworthy, yet no one has stepped forward to correct the numbers.
The RHNA system punishes cities that fail to meet their numbers by taking away control of planning and zoning. The system can impose fines and cancel a city’s eligibility for state or federal funds. Even if cities attract enough development to satisfy HCD’s bogus numbers, cities will go bankrupt providing infrastructure to serve the new development.
The construction industry is not capable of building the number of units the RHNA system has imposed. At present, the RHNA system requires 2.5 million new units by 2031. HCD’s 2022 Statewide Housing Plan shows that since 1986, only once did residential building approach anywhere near the 312,500 units per year that would be needed to reach the goal HCD set for the sixth cycle. The RHNA system is an unfunded mandate that produces plenty of angst and very little low-cost housing. Even if cities approved every project without review, cities have no way to enable the construction industry to build to meet sixth-cycle RHNA numbers.
The glue that holds cities together is being removed in ways that produce no new affordable housing. State Senate Bill 9 allows splitting of residential lots greater than 2,400 square feet. SB 10 allows housing on open-space land previously protected by voter initiative. Both laws override the will of residents, yet neither law demands that the new housing be “affordable.”
The need for housing for wage earners and those with little to no income is acute. Californians must create a new system, beginning with an accurate assessment of what’s needed and a very large fund to pay for it. Long before cities resort to lot-splitting or upzoning, they should exhaust the use of federal- and state-owned land, underused commercial strips and land around defunct big-box stores.
As citizens, our job is to ensure cities succeed. We must persuade city councils to join the lawsuit against HCD and/or the lawsuit against SB 9. Residents must let their local leaders know they have the support of citizens.
Joining either or both lawsuits is far less costly than creating a sixth-cycle housing element, a pointless, paperwork exercise.
Finally, Californians can support a 2024 ballot initiative to return control of planning and zoning to the cities.
Ann Duwe is a Los Altos Hills resident. For more information, email [email protected].
